A nomogram for predicting BK virus activation in kidney transplantation recipients using clinical risk factors
Cheng Yang1,2,3, Jiyan Wang1,3, Jiawei Li1,3, Ruiming Rong1,3, Tongyu Zhu1,3.
1Urology, Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China; 2Zhangjiang Institute of Fudan University, Shanghai, People's Republic of China; 3Shanghai Key Laboratory of Organ Transplantation, Shanghai, People's Republic of China
BK virus is a common opportunistic viral infection that could cause BK virus-associated nephropathy in renal transplant recipients. Thus, we retrospectively analyzed clinical and laboratory data associated with higher risk of BK virus activation from 195 renal transplant recipients by multivariable logistic regression and performed the external validation. Results showed that the patients with BK virus active-infection were associated with deceased donor, had lower direct bilirubin levels, higher proportion of albumin in serum protein electrophoresis, lower red blood cell and neutrophil counts. Multivariate logistic regression analyses revealed that the living donor, direct bilirubin, neutrophil counts were significantly associated with BK virus activation. The logistic model displayed a modest discriminability with area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.689 (95% CI, 0.607–0.771; P < 0.01), and also demonstrated a good performance in the external validation dataset (area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.699, 95% CI: 0.5899 - 0.8081). The novel predictive nomogram achieved a good prediction of BK virus activation in kidney transplant recipients.
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